01 洪灾将气候问题推入德国大选核心

破坏性洪灾让人们更加关注气候变化问题，大多数德国政党都认同全球变暖是导致这场灾难的罪魁祸首。

全文共927个词, By Guy Chazan in Berlin

With just over two months to go until polling day, the devastating floods that swept through western Germany this week have catapulted climate change to the heart of the country’s election campaign.

距离大选仅仅两个月多一点，上周席卷德国西部的破坏性洪灾将气候变化问题推到了德国大选的核心。

Most German political parties agreed global warming was to blame for a catastrophe that has left at least 140 people dead and visited destruction on towns and villages across two of the country’s most populous states.

这场灾难已造成至少140人死亡，并在德国人口最多的两个州的村镇造成巨大破坏，大多数德国政党都认同全球变暖是导致这场洪灾的罪魁祸首。

A dam on the Roer river burst on Saturday as rescuers scrambled to evacuate about 700 residents from the town of Wassenberg, near the Dutch border.

上周六，救援人员紧急疏散靠近荷兰边境的瓦森贝格镇（Wassenberg）的约700名居民时，鲁尔河（Roer）上的一座大坝决堤。

The dramatic scenes could benefit the Greens, who even before this week were set to make big gains in September’s poll. Their strongest suit — a focus on climate change and on mobilising resources to prevent it — has acquired new urgency.

这惊人的一幕可能令绿党受益，绿党甚至在上周之前就显出将在9月大选中取得巨大胜利的态势。他们最强烈的主张——关注气候变化和动员资源防范气候变化——获得了新的紧迫性。

So far, they have refrained from saying “told you so”. Robert Habeck, the party’s co leader, did not visit the areas affected by the floods, telling Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine that “rubbernecking politicians just get in the way in such situations”.

到目前为止，他们一直没有说“早就告诉过你”。绿党联合领导人罗伯特·哈贝克（Robert Habeck）没有到访受灾地区，他向德国《明镜周刊》（Der Spiegel）表示，“在这种情况下，围观的政治人士只会碍事”。

But it is clear that the new focus on freak weather events and their links to a warming planet could deliver a boost to the Greens’ candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock. It could also distract attention from the mistakes that have so far beset her campaign.

但很明显，人们对反常天气事件及其与全球变暖的联系的新关注，可能对绿党总理候选人安娜琳娜·贝尔博克（Annalena Baerbock）有利。这也可能分散人们对迄今为止给她竞选活动蒙上阴影的各种错误的注意力。

The 40-year-old MP has been on the ropes recently over inaccuracies in her CV, alleged plagiarism in a book she published last month and delays in reporting extra party income to parliament.

这位40岁的议员最近一直处于危机之中，原因包括简历不准确、上月出版的一本书被指剽窃，以及拖延向议会报告额外党内收入。

“She definitely will be able to score points now with the [Greens’] competence in environmental and climate issues, ” Karl-Rudolf Korte, a political scientist at the University of Duisburg-Essen, told German television. “It gives her a whole new way to mobilise voters.”

“凭借（绿党）在环境和气候问题上的能力，她现在肯定能得分。”杜伊斯堡-埃森大学（University of Duisburg-Essen）政治科学家卡尔-鲁道夫·科尔特（Karl-Rudolf Korte）向德国电视台表示，“这给了她动员选民的一种全新方式。”

Government spokeswoman Martina Fietz made clear that the authorities considered climate change to be the chief cause of the floods. “In principle, global warming leads to an increase in so-called extreme weather events like heatwaves, heavy rains and storms,” she said. In Germany, the average temperature had already risen by 2C since records began, she added.

德国政府发言人马丁娜·菲茨（Martina Fietz）明确表示，当局认为气候变化是导致洪灾的首要原因。她说：“原则上，全球变暖导致了热浪、暴雨和风暴等所谓极端天气事件的增加。”她补充称，自有记录以来，德国平均气温已上升2摄氏度。

On the other hand, the focus on climate could prove tricky for Armin Laschet, the candidate for chancellor from the centre-right CDU/CSU. As governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, home to some of Germany’s biggest companies, he strongly opposes parts of the Greens’agenda, saying they could endanger the country’s status as an industrial powerhouse.

另一方面，对于中右翼基民盟（CDU）/基社盟（CSU）总理候选人阿明·拉舍特（Armin Laschet）来说，人们对气候问题的关注可能会很棘手。作为德国一些大型公司所在的北莱茵-威斯特法伦州（North Rhine-Westphalia）的州长，他坚决反对绿党的部分议程，称其可能危及德国工业强国的地位。

He was caught on the back foot on Thursday after losing patience with a TV interviewer when she asked if Germany needed to act more aggressively to stem the climate crisis. Clearly irritated, he replied: “You don’t change your policies just because of a day like today.”

上周四，一名电视台记者问及德国是否需要采取更积极的行动遏制气候危机时，拉舍特变得不耐烦，被迫采取守势。他显然被激怒了，说道：“你不能仅仅因为像今天这样的一天就改变政策。”

Laschet was also sharply criticised on social media and by political opponents for his behaviour during a joint visit to the affected area with German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Erftstadt on Saturday.

拉舍特还因上周六与德国总统弗兰克-瓦尔特·施泰因迈尔（Frank-Walter Steinmeier）一同视察埃夫特施塔特（Erftstadt）受灾地区期间的行为，受到社交媒体和政治对手的尖锐抨击。

While Steinmeier was giving a sombre statement to media, TV footage showed Laschet in the background joking and laughing with other bystanders. He later apologised. “I regret the impression that was created during a conversation. That was inappropriate and I am sorry,” he said on Twitter.

施泰因迈尔向媒体发表沉重讲话时，电视画面显示拉舍特和其他旁观者在开玩笑和大笑。拉舍特随后道歉。他在Twitter说：“我很后悔在谈话时给大家留下了这样的印象。这非常不妥，我很抱歉。”

Yet even Laschet agrees that Germany must pick up the pace on climate. “We must move more quickly down the path towards carbon neutrality,” he said on Friday.

然而，就连拉舍特也同意德国必须加快应对气候变化的脚步。他上周五说：“我们必须更快朝着碳中和的方向前进。”

He has promised compensation to those left homeless by the floods, expressed sympathy for the victims and their families and thanked the emergency services, in speeches that seemed calculated to show him as an effective crisis manager and “Landesvater”, or father of the nation.

他承诺对那些因洪灾而无家可归的人给予补偿、对遇难者及其家人表示同情并对紧急服务机构表示感谢。他的讲话似乎是经过精心设计的，目的是向人们展示他是一位有效的危机管理者和“德国之父”（Landesvater）。

Korte believes Laschet could even gain politically from the new sense of insecurity ushered in by the floods. “We will have to expect new crises,” he said, “and we will have most trust in the people or parties who have the best ideas for protecting us from what may come.”That could benefit the CDU/CSU, which has governed Germany for 50 of the past 70 years,and harm Baerbock, who has no government experience.

科尔特认为，洪灾导致的新不安全感甚至可能给拉舍特带来政治好处。“我们将不得不期待新的危机。”他说，“我们将最信任那些有最好的想法来保护我们免受可能发生的灾难影响的人或政党。”这也可能对在过去70年里执政德国50年的基民盟/基社盟有利，对没有任何政府工作经验的贝尔博克不利。

If the floods end up having an impact on Germany’s election campaign, it will not be the first time. Experts say severe flooding of the river Elbe in August 2002 influenced the outcome of elections in that year and ensured victory for the Social Democratic chancellor Gerhard Schröder.

如果洪水最终影响德国大选，这将不是第一次。专家表示。2002年8月易北河（Elbe）的严重洪灾影响了当年的大选结果，确保了时任总理社民党（SDP）的格哈德·施罗德（Gerhard Schröder）获得胜利。

He rushed to the scene, donning rubber boots, wading through the mud, and later promising huge amounts of aid to the worst-hit areas. By contrast, his rival Edmund Stoiber, candidate for the CDU/CSU, did not break off his holiday on the North Sea island of Juist and ended up losing.

当时，施罗德立刻赶赴灾区，脚穿胶靴在泥泞中跋涉，并随后承诺向受灾最严重的地区提供大量援助。相比之下，他的竞争对手基民盟/基社盟候选人埃德蒙·施托伊贝尔（Edmund Stoiber）没有中断在北海尤伊斯特岛（Juist）的假期，最终以失败告终。

“I didn’t want to campaign with this natural catastrophe,” Stoiber said later, though he ended up visiting the flooded areas anyway.

施托伊贝尔后来说：“我不想借这场自然灾害竞选。”尽管他最终还是前往灾区。

The weather has also influenced politics in more recent years. The long dry spell that Germany experienced in 2018, when lack of rainfall caused fields and forests to turn brown in the baking sun, boosted the popularity of the Greens and fired their relentless rise in the polls: by November 2018 the party stood at 22 per cent in the polls, up from 8.9 per cent in the 2017 Bundestag election.

近年来，天气也影响了政治。2018年，德国经历了一段漫长的干旱期，降雨量不足导致田地和森林在炙热的阳光下变成了棕色，这提高了绿党的声望，并让他们在民调中的支持率飙升：到2018年11月，绿党在民调中获得22%的支持率，而在2017年德国联邦议院（Bundestag）选举中仅为8.9%。

In May 2019, the Greens garnered 20.5 per cent of the vote in elections to the European Parliament — the party’s best national result to date.

2019年5月，绿党在欧洲议会选举中获得20.5%的选票，为该党迄今为止在德国取得的最好成绩。

Though no one wants to make political hay out of a crisis, there will be some Greens privately hoping the impact of the 2018 heatwave finds an echo in the aftermath of the summer floods of 2021.

尽管没有人想从危机中捞到政治好处，但一些绿党人士会私下希望2021年夏季洪灾后能够重现2018年热浪的影响。